Ray Seilie was recently quoted in an IndieWire article titled “8 Big Questions to Make Sense of the Antitrust Suit Trying to Block the Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery Merger” and in a Global Competition Review article titled “States and Paramount set the stage for ‘epic battle.’”
The IndieWire article describes the recent antitrust suit filed by 12 states, led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, which challenges the Paramount-Warner Bros. $110 billion merger. The Writers Guild of America also filed its own lawsuit, alleging that writers will have fewer opportunities if this deal goes through.
The states’ lawsuit alleges that the deal would reduce competition, giving the combined company ultimate power. The goal of the states’ lawsuit is to block the entire merger, citing three markets where companies are potentially violating the Clayton Act: theatrical movies, theatrical tentpole blockbusters, and the cable channel market.
The lawsuit points to the Disney and Fox merger, arguing that there will be fewer films overall, which would result in theaters suffering. However, Ray tells IndieWire that the future is still quite uncertain.
“It’s not as straightforward as saying there were a lot of movies before, there are fewer movies now,” Ray shares. “You have to ask yourself if you let the business continue as it’s going right now, what’s going to happen in five years versus what’s going to happen in five years if you allow the merger to continue? Candidly, nobody really knows.”
Ray also notes that recent movies like “Obsession” and “Backrooms” would suggest that high-grossing films can come from other places.
“Paramount has plenty of responses. Theatrical was suffering, movie theaters were not doing well, so it’s very difficult to say that you had a healthy industry that is going to be endangered because of this merger,” Ray explains to IndieWire. “Their argument would be, in fact, that you need less competition among the movies and more certainty in order to facilitate the creation of more theatrical movies intended to be shown in theaters rather than streaming.”
Ray concludes by sharing his prediction as to how this lawsuit may play out, and noting that he thinks the merger will ultimately be successful. “My suspicion is this is going to, at some point, reach a settlement where the combined entity is going to have to make some credible and enforceable promises,” he explains. “You’re going to have a consent decree, and the merger in some form is going to go through.”
Ray shared similar sentiments with Global Competition Review, noting, “The complaint could also be a tactical step toward negotiating a settlement,” and that “Once a settlement is reached, it will probably look like a consent decree.”
Read more in IndieWire and Global Competition Review (Subscription may be required).
